 India''s GDP growth is expected at 7.2% in FY10, according to the Economic Survey.This matches the advance estimate of FY10 GDP announced by the CSOrecently, but is short of the RBI''s 7.5% growth projection for thecurrent fiscal year. Industrial growth is seen at 8.2% in FY10.
TheEconomic Survey said that GDP growth in FY11 is seen at 8.5%(+/-0.25%). On full recovery, India''s GDP growth will exceed 9% inFY12, it added.
Needto watch the progress of the economic recovery before unwinding thefiscal stimulus, the Economic Survey stated, adding that the recoverydoes provide an opportunity for a gradual withdrawal of the stimulus.
Concernson high inflation will remain over the next few months, the EconomicSurvey said. High food prices are a risk for general inflation, itsaid, adding that any hike in fuel prices will impact headlineinflation.
Supplyside pressure on inflation will prevail for the near term, the Surveysaid, adding that India is not immune to global price movements.
The following are the key takeaways from the Economic Survey.
- GDP growth expected at 7.2% in FY10: Economic Survey
- GDP growth in FY11 seen at 8.5% (+/-0.25%)
- On full recovery, GDP growth to exceed 9%, in FY12.
- Industry growth at 8.2%
- Need to watch the progress of recovery before unwinding fiscal stimulus
- Economic recovery provides opportunity for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus
- Concerns on high inflation over the next few months
- Increased capital inflows pose challenges in policy formation: Economic Survey
- Higher inflows have policy implications on capital account
- Major decline in consumption expenditure growth in FY10
- Growth in GFCF seen at 5.2% in FY20, up from 4%
- Exports may turn negative again as demand for imports increases
- Possible for India to emerge as the fastest growing economy in four years
- Large decline in customs and excise duty expected
- India not immune to global price situation
- High food prices a risk for general inflation
- Hike in fuel prices will impact inflation
- Supply side pressure on inflation to prevail for near term
- Lower peak customs duty to 7.5% from 10% now
- Govt must release foodgrain stocks when food prices accelerate
- Need to quicken efforts to remove hurdles in infrastructure development
- Need to liberalise foreign investment in health insurance, higher education
- Economic Survey favours cuts in excise duty to make exports, industry more competitive
- Advanced economies'' double-dip recession risk has direct implication for India
- Panel recommends cap on Central Govt debt at 45% of GDP by 2014-15, for States it is under 25%
- Panel recommends cap on consolidated govt debt at 68% of GDP by 2014-15
- Refining capacity to rise to 240.96mn tons by 2012: Economic Survey
- Cairn Rajasthan oil output to reach 2.4 mn tons by March-end
- Crude oil output to rise to 36.7mn tons in 2009-10: Economic Survey
- Crude oil output to rise 11% in 2009-10: Economic Survey
- Govt has allotted 61.61 mmscmd of Reliance gas: Economic Survey
- Natural gas output to rise to 50.2 bn cubic meters: Economic Survey
- Natural gas output to rise 52.8% in 2009-10: Economic Survey
- Reliance gas output to rise to 80 mmscmd by March: Economic Survey
- Growth depends on absorption of agricultural labor: Economic Survey
- Labor intensive sectors in India didn''t revive: Economic Survey
- Contribution of food prices to manufacturing inflation falling: Economic Survey
- Slowdown in Indian agriculture sector affecting industry: Economic Survey
- Food, leather, textile, paper sectors failed to revive: Economic Survey
- Tax waiver on edible oil imports to stay until Sept.30: Economic Survey
- High capital inflows may lead to overheating: Economic Survey
- Govt conducts one-time audit of Air India, Jet, Kingfisher Airlines: Economic Survey
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